世界经济在与二氧化碳排放脱方面取得的进展
Jaume Freire-González1, Emilio Padilla Rosa2, Josep Ll Raymond3
1Institute for Economic Analysis (CSIC) and Barcelona School of Economics, 08193, Bellaterra, Barcelona, Spain. jaume.freire@iae.csic.es.
Scientific reports
|September 3, 2024
概括
经济增长仍然推动全球二氧化碳排放,尽管这一联系正在减弱. 大多数国家没有将排放与经济增长脱,阻碍了气候目标.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
背景情况:
- 环境库兹涅茨曲线 (EKC) 假设表明,环境退化最初随着经济增长而上升,但随着收入水平的提高而下降.
- 分析EKC假设的传统计量经济学方法可能有局限性.
- 了解经济增长与二氧化碳 (CO2) 排放之间的动态关系对于气候政策至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 通过使用替代方法来研究经济增长与二氧化碳排放之间的关系.
- 评估人均国内生产总值和人均二氧化碳排放之间的脱程度,跨国和随着时间的推移.
- 评估朝着"巴黎协定"限制全球气温上升的目标取得的进展.
主要方法:
- 采用了一种新的细分样本回归方法.
- 该分析涵盖了164个国家,占全球人口的98.34%.
- 数据涵盖了从1822年到2018年的不同时期.
主要成果:
- 人均国内生产总值和人均二氧化碳排放之间的关联正在减弱,但在全球范围内仍然是积极的.
- 在164个国家中,只有49个国家成功地将二氧化碳排放与经济增长脱.
- 非洲,美洲和亚洲的大多数国家尚未脱,而欧洲和大洋洲的大多数国家已经脱.
结论:
- 全球二氧化碳排放与经济增长的脱并未实现.
- 目前的趋势表明,与"巴黎协定"的1.5°C目标相差,而不是接近.
- 迫切需要有效的气候政策来解决经济增长和排放之间的持久联系.
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