在重新殖民和重新引入场景下,预测未来灰熊息地在Bitterroot生态系统中的使用情况
Sarah N Sells1, Cecily M Costello2
1U.S. Geological Survey, Montana Cooperative Wildlife Research Unit, Wildlife Biology Program, Ecology and Evolution Program, University of Montana, Missoula, Montana, United States of America.
PloS one
|September 4, 2024
概括
在比特鲁特生态系统中灰熊息地使用率预计将在北部更高,自然重新定居有利于蒙大拿州,再引入有利于爱达荷州. 这两种情况都强调了需要大面积的景观规划.
科学领域:
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
- 野生动物生态生态学
- 运动生态学 运动生态学
背景情况:
- 保护工作往往面临数据的局限性,特别是在 Bitterroot 生态系统 (BE) 中恢复灭绝的种群,如灰熊 (Ursus arctos).
- 评估北欧地区灰熊种群恢复战略需要对息地使用进行预测建模.
研究的目的:
- 预测在自然重新定居,重新引入和组合场景下,在北极地区和附近的灰熊息地使用情况.
- 评估模型预测与现有的灰熊位置数据的对齐程度.
- 通过确定关键息地和私有土地的作用,为保护规划提供信息.
主要方法:
- 对附近的灰熊种群开发的基于个体的运动模型的应用.
- 在三个不同的人口恢复场景下模拟息地使用:自然重新定居,重新引入和组合.
- 用灰熊的异常值和GPS项圈数据验证模型预测.
主要成果:
- 所有模拟预测研究区域北部一半的灰熊息地使用率更高.
- 自然重新殖民主要集中在蒙大拿州,随着时间的推移,它在爱达荷州北方的BE地区转向更均的分布.
- 重新引入的场景集中在爱达荷州中东部,而组合的场景显示在北方和周边地区广泛使用.
- 预测自然重新定居的息地图与实证数据有很强的一致性 (斯皮尔曼等级相关性≥0.93).
- 模拟熊利用的景观远远大于BE,包括私人土地,反映了现有种群的模式.
结论:
- 预计灰熊息地使用将集中在北北欧,在不同的恢复场景下出现不同的空间模式.
- 模型预测强烈支持自然重新定居场景,验证了模型对保护计划的实用性.
- 恢复工作必须考虑大型景观,包括私有土地,以有效管理人类-灰熊冲突并确保公众接受.
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