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模拟气候变化对罗莎多种植物的全球分布的影响

Shun-Ting Yang^1,2, Hui-Chun Wang², Wei-Kun Jing²

¹Institute of Resource Plants, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China.

Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology

|September 5, 2024

概括

全球变暖可能会扩大多植物 (Rosa multiflora) 的入侵范围,这是现代的关键祖先. 气候变化对其潜在的地理分布产生重大影响,预计将向更高度转移.

科学领域:

生态生态学生态生态学
生物地理学生物地理学生物地理学
气候变化研究气候变化研究

背景情况:

多种植物 (Rosa multiflora),起源于东亚,是一个重要的遗传资源和现代的祖先.
它的强生长和高耐药性导致了北美等引入地区的入侵行为.

研究的目的:

研究多种植物的适合息地与气候变化之间的关系.
为了预测多种植物在各种气候场景下潜在的地理分布.

主要方法:

使用1246个分布记录,采用了优化的MaxEnt模型.
分析了9个生物气候变量,以确定它们对分布的影响.
在当前,全新世纪中期,最后一个冰河间和未来的气候条件下 (SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP5-8.5) 预测了潜在分布.

主要成果:

最冷季度的平均温度,最冷月份的最低温度,最热季度的降水和同热度是生物气候的关键驱动因素.
目前的分布集中在洛斯高原以东和南部的平原和丘陵地区.
未来的预测表明多种植物分布的扩张,在变暖情景下,它的分布中心向北移动.

结论:

多种植物的分布与气候变化密切相关,全球变暖可能会增加其范围.
了解其生态适应性和预测未来分布对于监测和预警系统至关重要.
该研究为应对气候变化的入侵物种管理提供了理论基础.

关键词:

马克斯恩特马克斯恩特气候变化气候变化气候变化潜在的息地区域是一个潜在的息地区域.种类分布模型的物种分布模型.

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