通过动态考虑拓和风险级联传播,建立芯片贸易网络的稳定性
Yifan Liu1, Chunpeng Du2, Lei Shi3,4
1School of Economics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian, 116025, Liaoning, China.
Scientific reports
|September 5, 2024
概括
全球芯片贸易网络表现出小世界特征. 风险传播分析显示,主导权力正在向亚洲转移,其中包括中国.
科学领域:
- 网络科学 网络科学
- 国际贸易 国际贸易 国际贸易
- 供应链风险管理的风险管理
背景情况:
- 现有的风险级联传播研究主要使用理论网络.
- 国际芯片供应链的脆弱性最近成为一个重大问题.
- 了解现实世界芯片贸易系统中的风险传播具有战略意义.
研究的目的:
- 分析国际芯片贸易网络的拓特征和演变.
- 为芯片交易系统开发和应用风险级联传播模型.
- 揭示全球芯片贸易动态中隐藏的系统风险.
主要方法:
- 将全球芯片贸易数据 (2009-2021) 抽象成不对称加权网络.
- 利用宏观网络和微节点指标来研究网络拓和演变.
- 开发节点故障,边缘限制和社区感染驱动的风险传播模型.
主要成果:
- 国际芯片贸易网络具有高度的连接性,凝聚力和小世界的特点.
- 供应短缺风险冲击加剧了经济崩,主要的传播力量转移到亚洲 (特别是中国).
- 聚焦边缘网络显示出多枢纽辐射模式,枢纽经济体的控制和溢出效应越来越大.
结论:
- 增加社区风险吸收能力或扩散衰减可以降低系统风险.
- 调查结果为决策者提供了芯片贸易管理战略的信息,提高了供应稳定性和安全性.
- 该研究提供了一个多维的动态视角,对国际芯片贸易中的系统性风险.
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