一只羽毛的交易...在R&D协作数据中建模潜在类,使用有限混合分析
Troy Neilson1, Joshua Byrnes1, Nicholas Rohde2
1Centre for Applied Health Economics, Griffith University, Nathan, Queensland, Australia.
PloS one
|September 6, 2024
概括
公共情绪显著影响生命科学交易的估值,特别是临床前阶段的研发合作 (RDC). 这凸显了当产品知识很高但成功概率不确定时,市场的敏感性.
科学领域:
- 生物制药行业 生物制药行业
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
- 商业战略 商业战略
背景情况:
- 不对称的信息和行为因素影响生命科学交易的估值波动.
- 了解研发合作 (RDC) 交易数据中的异质性对于准确的估值至关重要.
- 公共情绪为谈判期间的市场行为提供了可衡量的代理.
研究的目的:
- 调查基于行为的不对称性对生命科学中的交易估值的影响.
- 检查公众情绪作为RDC交易谈判中市场行为的代理人的作用.
- 为了在RDC中识别潜在类,处理受行为因素影响的数据.
主要方法:
- 利用有限混合模型来分析RDC交易数据.
- 采用公众情绪作为一种行为代理.
- 基于开发阶段的细分数据.
主要成果:
- 公众情绪显著预测特定子集的交易价值 (约. 15%) 的RDC交易.
- 这种影响集中在临床前发展阶段.
- 市场对公众情绪的敏感性在临床前阶段加剧.
结论:
- 行为不对称,由公众情绪代理,明显影响RDC交易估值.
- 这种影响在临床前RDC交易中最为明显,其中产品知识存在,但成功概率不确定.
- 识别潜在类揭示了特定的条件,在这些条件下,市场行为最强烈地影响交易定价.
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