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一种递归动态CGE方法来研究环境库兹内茨曲线
Muhammad Shahbaz1, Mehdi Nejati2, Anna Min Du3
1School of Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, China; GUST Center for Sustainable Development (CSD), Gulf University for Science and Technology, Hawally, Kuwait; Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom.
Journal of environmental management
|September 7, 2024
概括
技术进步可以帮助G7国家实现经济增长,同时减少碳排放,证实环境库兹内茨曲线 (EKC). 碳税和可再生能源投资等政策进一步增强了这些环境效益.
科学领域:
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 计量经济学 计量经济学
- 应用的一般平衡模型.
背景情况:
- 环境库兹涅茨曲线 (EKC) 假定经济增长与环境退化之间存在一个反转的U形关系.
- 对EKC的实证测试已经持续了30多年.
- 在计算通用平衡 (CGE) 模型中检查EKC时,技术变化是关键因素.
研究的目的:
- 使用多区域CGE模型提取G7国家的EKC.
- 通过使用历史数据 (1861-2021) 调查关键因素对EKC的影响.
- 分析能源效率,碳税,收入回收和替代弹性对EKC的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用多区域CGE模型来模拟经济和环境结果.
- 分析了G7国家从1861年到2021年的历史数据.
- 评估了提高生产率,能源效率,碳税和各种替代弹性的影响.
主要成果:
- 预计到2050年,生产率提高3%将使GDP增加12%,碳排放减少4.4%.
- 这种经济增长和减排的结合表明了反转的U形EKC.
- 资本-能源和能源投入之间的替代弹性对EKC产生重大影响. 碳税,特别是当收入被回收到可再生能源部门时,会使EKC变平和降低.
结论:
- 技术进步和有针对性的政策可以使G7国家的经济增长与碳排放脱.
- 碳税有效地减少了排放,并实现了负的EKC斜率.
- 将碳税收入分配给可再生能源生产进一步放大了积极的环境效应.
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