专家的判断揭示了英国当前和新兴的气候死亡负担
Dann Mitchell1, Y T Eunice Lo1, Emily Ball1
1Cabot Institute for the Environment, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
The Lancet. Planetary health
|September 7, 2024
概括
这项研究利用专家知识将天气和气候模式与英国死亡原因联系起来. 它强调了温度极端的当前影响,并确定了长期暴露和未来气候变化的低估风险.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 天气和气候对公众健康有重大影响,但具体的危险死亡率联系尚未完全合成.
- 现有的国家级健康负担评估由于缺乏全面数据而面临不确定性.
- 专家知识可以减少不确定性,并量化死亡原因超出明确数据.
研究的目的:
- 提供关于天气和气候对死亡率直接影响的首个结构化专家判断.
- 评估英国当前和未来的与天气有关的死亡原因.
- 在其他国家建立一个基于专家的气候相关健康负担评估框架.
主要方法:
- 调查了30名天气,气候和健康方面的专家.
- 开发了一个结构化的专家判断框架.
- 专注于天气和气候对英国死亡率的直接影响.
主要成果:
- 目前与天气有关的死亡率主要是由短期的高温和低温暴露引起的,导致心血管和呼吸系统衰竭.
- 低估的死亡结果包括与热相关的病,与寒冷相关的肌肉骨问题以及由复合危害引起的传染病.
- 未来的预测表明死亡率恶化,包括热量和洪水对心理健康的影响,以及传染病模式的改变.
结论:
- 专家的判断对于了解天气和气候相关死亡率的全部范围至关重要.
- 长期暴露和复合危害代表着重要的,经常被忽视的,气候敏感的健康风险.
- 这种基于专家的方法可以为全球气候变化适应战略和健康负担评估提供信息.
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