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为患有冠心病的老年患者开发和验证虚弱风险预测模型

Siqin Liu^1,2, Xiaoli Yuan³, Heting Liang²

¹Department of Neurology, Affiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical University, Zunyi, China.

|September 7, 2024

概括

在患有冠状动脉心脏病 (CHD) 的老年患者中,脆弱性很普遍. 糟糕的健康状况,晚年和日常生活能力受损是关键的风险因素,需要早期干预策略.

科学领域:

老年学是指老年学的学科.
心脏病学心脏病学
公共卫生公共卫生

背景情况:

在老年人群中,虚弱是一个很大的问题,特别是那些患有冠心病 (CHD) 等慢性疾病的人.
了解导致CHD患者虚弱的因素对于开发有针对性的干预措施至关重要.

研究的目的:

鉴定患有心脏病的老年患者虚弱的有影响因素.
开发和验证一个基于名录的风险预测模型来预测这一群体的脆弱性.

主要方法:

一组592名老年心血管疾病患者使用一般信息问卷,Frail尺度和日常生活尺度的仪器活动进行了评估.
后勤回归和 χ2 测试确定了脆弱性风险因素. 开发了一个名ogram预测模型,并使用ROC曲线,Hosmer-Lemeshow测试和Bootstrap重新采样来验证.

主要成果:

在老年CHD患者中,虚弱的患病率为30.07%.
虚弱的独立风险因素包括健康状况不佳 (OR=28.169),一般健康状况 (OR=18.120),年龄 (OR=1.046) 和日常生活工具能力受损 (OR=2.384).
诺莫格拉姆模型表现出强大的预测性能,AUC为0.847,预测值与实际值 (C指数=0.839) 之间的一致性很好.

结论:

在患有心血管疾病的老年患者中,虚弱是常见的,并且与健康状况,年龄,社会参与和日常生活能力有关.
开发的诺莫格拉姆模型有效地预测了脆弱性,使得风险人群的早期识别和干预成为可能.

关键词:

冠心病是一种冠心病.年长的老人.脆弱性脆弱性脆弱性预测模型是一个预测模型.风险因素风险因素

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