优化12个东欧和中亚国家的艾滋病毒支出:一项建模研究
Debra C Ten Brink1, Anna L Bowring1, Rowan Martin-Hughes1
1Burnet Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
The lancet. HIV
|September 8, 2024
概括
优化东欧和中亚的艾滋病毒资源分配可以避免大量的感染和死亡. 优先考虑抗逆转录病毒疗法和关键人群计划对于最大限度的健康影响至关重要.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
背景情况:
- 东欧和中亚 (EECA) 地区面临着世界上增长最快的艾滋病毒流行病.
- 了解最佳的资源配置对于最大限度地提高该地区的健康影响至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在12个EECA国家确定HIV资源最有效的分配,以最大限度地影响健康.
- 预测不同支出情景对2023年至2030年艾滋病毒感染和死亡的影响.
主要方法:
- 对12个EECA国家使用Optima艾滋病毒流行病模型进行了配置效率分析.
- 模型与人口统计,流行病学和程序数据进行校准,并由国家队验证.
- 预计有三种情景:现状支出,优化分配和实现联合国艾滋病规划署95-95-95目标.
主要成果:
- 与现状相比,优化分配可以避免32%的新艾滋病毒感染和27%的死亡.
- 实现95-95-95目标可以避免64%的感染和55%的死亡,但在许多国家需要大幅增加资金.
- 抗逆转录病毒疗法和针对关键人口的计划是减少感染和死亡的关键.
结论:
- 针对关键人口的有针对性的计划必须在EECA地区保持高度优先级.
- 实现95-95-95目标需要改善服务提供,以减少艾滋病毒感染者的诊断和治疗差距.
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