在非静止环境下从干旱传播角度进行干旱监测和评估的框架
Xingchen Wei1, Xinyu Wu1, Hongbo Zhang2
1Institute of Hydropower and Hydroinformatics, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China; Key Laboratory of Ocean Energy Utilization and Energy Conservation of Ministry of Education, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China.
The Science of the total environment
|September 8, 2024
概括
传统的干旱指数由于非静态的水文气象变量而失败. 新的非静止综合干旱指数 (NIDI) 会计气候变化和人类活动,改善干旱监测和政策制定.
科学领域:
- 水文和气候科学 水文和气候科学
- 环境监测和评估 环境监测和评估
背景情况:
- 由于气候变化和人类活动,水文气象变量越来越不稳定,挑战传统的干旱指数.
- 中国现有的干旱监测需要跨不同部门的多个指数,往往缺乏实时数据.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个新的干旱监测和评估框架,使用干旱传播视角.
- 引入非静止整合干旱指数 (NIDI),整合气象,农业,水文和地下水干旱应对措施.
主要方法:
- 对干旱传播的分析,以选择适当的时间尺度干旱指数.
- 气候指数的选择和人类影响的评估 (NDVI,ISR,POP).
- 开发非静止概率模型,并使用D-vine copula和遗传算法计算NIDI.
主要成果:
- NIDI有效地考虑了受气候变化和人类活动影响的非静态水气天气变量.
- 该指数准确地复制了干旱变量的时间依赖结构.
- 与传统指数 (SPI,SSI,SRI,SGI) 相比,NIDI发现了更多极端干旱事件.
结论:
- 与传统指数相比,NIDI为干旱识别提供了更全面的方法.
- 这一框架为准确的干旱检测和有效的干旱政策制定提供了宝贵的见解.
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