埃博拉病毒病的符合性数学模型及其稳定性分析
Nadeem Abbas1, Syeda Alishwa Zanib2, Sehrish Ramzan3
1Department of Mathematics and Sciences, College of Humanities and Sciences, Prince Sultan University, Riyadh, 11586, Saudi Arabia.
Heliyon
|September 9, 2024
概括
实施隔离策略有效降低了埃博拉病毒疾病 (EVD) 传播率. 这种数学模型突出了隔离的关闭.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
- 病毒学 病毒学
背景情况:
- 埃博拉病毒病 (EVD) 是一种严重的病毒性出血热,有可能在全球迅速传播.
- 控制埃博拉病毒需要了解其传播动态,并实施有效的公共卫生干预措施.
研究的目的:
- 为埃博拉病毒病开发一个修改后的数学模型,并采用隔离策略.
- 分析隔离对病毒传播动态的影响,使用分数计算.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种EVD的修改数学模型,其中包含一个隔离区.
- 应用符合性导数来分析分数导数值 (0.7-1).
- 使用下一代矩阵 (NGM) 方法确定基本复制数 (R0).
- 通过使用罗斯-赫尔维茨 (RH) 标准和卡斯蒂略-查韦斯方法在无疾病平衡处评估了局部和全球稳定性.
- 采用第四阶Runge-Kutta (RK4) 方法进行数值模拟.
主要成果:
- 隔离策略显著降低了埃博拉病毒传播率.
- 分数导数分析为不同导数顺序的疾病行为提供了洞察力.
- 稳定性分析证实了疾病根除的条件.
结论:
- 隔离是缓解埃博拉病毒疾病传播的重要控制策略.
- 数学建模,特别是微积分计算,为了解和管理流行病提供了宝贵的工具.
- 该研究为评估针对埃博拉病毒的公共卫生干预提供了一个框架.
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