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基于LUCC的东江湖流域水质量的定量预测
Yang Song1, Xiaoming Li2, Ying Zheng3
1College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha 410082, PR China; ASEM Water Resources Research and Development Center, Changsha 410031, PR China.
Ecotoxicology and environmental safety
|September 9, 2024
概括
预测流域水质变化对于可持续管理至关重要. 这项研究开发了一个动态模型,将土地利用/覆盖面变化 (LUCC) 与水质联系起来,表明生态保护改善了水质,而发展则降低了水质.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水文学的水文学
- 遥感 遥感 遥感 遥感
- 地理信息系统 (GIS) 是指地理信息系统.
背景情况:
- 土地使用/覆盖变化 (LUCC) 显著影响流域水文过程,营养循环和沉积物运输,影响水质的空间和时间.
- 现有的模型往往难以预测复杂的流域环境中的动态的时空水质变化,阻碍了可持续的水资源管理.
- 准确的水质预测对于有效的流域管理和资源可持续性至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 建立一个全面的,动态的建模框架,将LUCC与流域水质联系起来,以准确的未来预测.
- 量化预测流域水质变化,使用LUCC作为独立变量和水质作为依赖变量.
- 为可持续的水资源开发提供源水管理和净化工作的科学指导.
主要方法:
- 分析1992-2022年间的多期遥感图像 (Landsat-5,Landsat-8,Sentinel-2),用于使用随机森林 (卡帕系数:0.9468) 进行土地利用分类.
- 开发一个细胞自动机-马尔科夫链 (CA-Markov) 模型来模拟和预测 LUCC 的时空模式,结合诸如水,道路,高度和斜率 (验证卡帕系数:0.9505) 等因素.
- 将CA-马尔科夫模型与水质模型结合起来,以预测在各种未来的LUCC场景 (2023-2033) 下的水质变化.
主要成果:
- 土地使用分类实现了高准确性 (卡帕:0.9468),CA-马尔科夫模型显示了强大的预测力 LUCC (卡帕:0.9505).
- 预计的LUCC场景 (自然发展,生态保护,耕地保护) 显示出对水质的不同影响.
- 在生态保护情景下,预计水质将改善,而在自然发展和耕地保护情景下,由于城市扩张和农业活动,预计水质将恶化.
结论:
- 开发的动态建模框架有效地将LUCC与水质联系起来,为流域管理提供了可靠的预测.
- 生态保护战略对于改善流域水质至关重要,而不受控制的开发和某些农业做法可能会导致退化.
- 该研究为可持续的流域管理,水源保护和净化策略提供了重要的科学见解.
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