对胎儿生长限制和出生体重的预测模型的开发和验证:个人参与者数据的元分析
John Allotey1, Lucinda Archer2, Dyuti Coomar1
1WHO Collaborating Centre for Global Women's Health, Institute of Metabolism and Systems Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
Health technology assessment (Winchester, England)
|September 10, 2024
概括
新模型准确预测胎儿生长限制和出生体重,有助于早期风险分层,以改善围产期结果. 这些工具有助于规划风险妊娠的监测和管理.
科学领域:
- 产科和妇科 产科和妇科
- 围产儿医学 围产儿医学
- 预测建模预测建模
背景情况:
- 胎儿生长限制 (FGR) 与不良的围产期结果有关.
- 早期识别风险胎儿对于减少并发症至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估用于预测FGR和出生体重的现有模型.
- 开发和验证新的多变量模型,必要时使用个人参与者数据.
主要方法:
- 多个队列的个人参与者数据元分析.
- 现有模型的外部验证和新的国际预测妊娠并发症 (IPP) 模型的开发.
- 使用回归模型,逆向排除和内部-外部交叉验证.
主要成果:
- 大多数现有的模型显示FGR的预测性能很差.
- 新的IPP-FGR模型结合了母亲的特征和病史,实现了强大的预测性能 (c-统计值0.96).
- IPP-出生体重模型也显示出良好的校准.
结论:
- 开发的IPP-FGR和IPP-出生体重模型准确地预测了结果.
- 这些模型可以对预订中的风险进行分层,指导监控和管理策略.
- 建议在常规实践中进行进一步评估.
相关概念视频
Teratogenicity
2.4K
The ability of a drug to produce structural deformations and functional abnormalities in the developing embryo or the fetus is called teratogenicity, and the drug producing this effect is known as a teratogen. Teratogenic effects include stillbirth, miscarriage, intrauterine growth restriction, and neurocognitive delay. A teratogen may affect the embryo at different stages of development, which is important in determining the type and extent of the damage. During blastocyst formation, the early...
2.4K
Mechanistic Models: Compartment Models in Individual and Population Analysis
33
Mechanistic models are utilized in individual analysis using single-source data, but imperfections arise due to data collection errors, preventing perfect prediction of observed data. The mathematical equation involves known values (Xi), observed concentrations (Ci), measurement errors (εi), model parameters (ϕj), and the related function (ƒi) for i number of values. Different least-squares metrics quantify differences between predicted and observed values. The ordinary least...
33


