预测决策的行为数据集,给定了成年期信息趋势的趋势
Daniel Sazhin1, Vishnu Murty1, Chelsea Helion1
1Temple University, United States.
Data in brief
|September 10, 2024
概括
这项研究探讨了人们如何利用趋势做出预测,发现个人差异和收入不平等可能会影响更好的预测决策策略.
科学领域:
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
- 认知心理学 认知心理学
- 心理社会研究 心理学研究
背景情况:
- 准确的预测对于金融和流行病学等领域的决策至关重要.
- 现有研究表明,人们使用最近和长期趋势进行预测.
- 然而,区分优越预测策略的因素仍然不清楚.
研究的目的:
- 调查预测判断策略中的个体差异.
- 探索心理社会因素 (焦虑,冲动,躁郁症症状) 对预测的影响.
- 检查收入不平等是否会缓和预测性决策.
主要方法:
- 设计了一个投资任务,参与者根据所呈现的趋势预测未来的结果.
- 参与者决定是否寻求更多信息,或者在每一轮比赛中做出预测.
- 收集了有关参与者社区心理社会特征和收入不平等的数据.
主要成果:
- 研究范式允许在预测中解开最近与长期信息的使用.
- 收集的数据可以用来探索个人差异和预测判断之间的关联.
- 研究设计使得能够调查当地收入不平等对基于价值的决策的影响.
结论:
- 了解预测策略对于从金融到公共卫生等领域至关重要.
- 个人的心理形象和社会经济背景可能会极大地影响预测能力.
- 这项研究为进一步调查影响人类预测的复杂因素提供了框架.
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