在海上原油网络中评估连接可靠性和选择最可靠的航线
Shuang Wang1, Yan Wang2, Chengshou Lai3
1College of Transportation Engineering, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian, 116026, China.
Heliyon
|September 10, 2024
概括
本研究引入了评估原油运输路线可靠性的新方法,考虑到节点风险. 调查结果显示,在路线可靠性方面存在区域差异,这对于能源安全战略至关重要.
科学领域:
- 海上物流的海上物流
- 风险管理 风险管理
- 网络分析 网络分析
背景情况:
- 海上原油网络由于各种风险因素而面临连接不确定性.
- 以前的研究往往忽视了网络分析中的节点可靠性和现实世界的复杂性.
- 确定可靠的石油运输航线需要动态模型来考虑外部风险.
研究的目的:
- 开发用于评估海上原油运输中节点和网络连接可靠性的新方法.
- 创建动态模型,以确定在不确定性下最可靠的航线.
- 通过改进风险评估,提高原油运输的安全性和及时性.
主要方法:
- 为节点和网络建立了新的连接可靠性评估方法.
- 开发了"α-最可靠的航线"和"最可靠的航线"模型.
- 在原油物流中利用不确定的编程进行动态路线识别.
主要成果:
- 中国的海运原油网络的连接可靠性为0.6228.
- 不可靠的来源-目的地对,特别是在中东,显著影响网络可靠性.
- 与亚洲和拉丁美洲相比,非洲和中东地区可靠航线的风险值更高,随着节点风险的增加,区域差异越来越大.
结论:
- 开发的模型可以更准确地评估原油运输路线的可靠性.
- 调查结果强调了在能源运输战略中考虑节点可靠性和区域风险的重要性.
- 结果可以为能源进口政策提供信息,以加强运输安全和可靠性.
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