不同类型的污染物介导病毒性肝炎:对不同算法和时间序列模型的评估
Shengfei Pei1, Li Yang2, Huixia Gao2
1School of Public Health, North China University of Science of Technology, Tangshan, 062310, Hebei, China.
Scientific reports
|September 10, 2024
概括
环境污染,包括PM2.5和CO,显著影响病毒性肝炎发病率,特别是在35-64岁的成年人中,在5-6个月后观察到效应. 长期监测污染物对于预防至关重要.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 毒理学 毒理学 毒理学
背景情况:
- 越来越多的环境污染事件引起了人们对健康影响的担忧.
- 了解污染物对病毒性肝炎的影响对于预防策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 研究环境污染物对病毒性肝炎发病率的单一和综合影响.
- 探索病毒性肝炎和污染物水平的预测模型.
- 识别影响病毒性肝炎的易受影响的人口结构和特定污染物.
主要方法:
- 对病毒性肝炎发病率和污染物数据 (CO,NO2,O3) 的时间序列分析 (SARIMA,Holt-Winters,GAM).
- 机器学习 (SVM,GPR) 用于污染物水平预测.
- 权重定量总和 (WQS) 回归以评估不同群体对病毒性肝炎的污染物影响.
主要成果:
- 霍尔特-温特斯模型优于肝炎发病率预测;SVM模型优于污染物预测.
- 综合污染物暴露显示出风险效应 (βWQS = 0.066).
- PM2.5是HCV和HEV的关键风险因素;CO影响了HAV患者.
- 较低的PM2.5/PM10与延迟5个月的风险增加有关;较高的PM2.5/CO与延迟6个月的风险增加有关.
- 35-64岁的个人特别容易受到影响.
结论:
- 环境污染物,特别是PM2.5和CO,显著影响病毒性肝炎的发病率.
- 特定的污染物会影响不同类型的肝炎和不同年龄组,有显著的滞后期.
- 长期监测污染物对于管理病毒性肝炎风险至关重要.
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