贝叶斯耕作小麦的模型面临着气候和可持续性挑战
1Department of Sustainable Land Management, SAPD, The School of Agriculture, Policy, and Development, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom.
Frontiers in artificial intelligence
|September 11, 2024
概括
无耕种 (NT) 农业显著减少温室气体 (GHG-CO2) 排放和地表排放,同时与传统耕种 (CT) 相比增加小麦产量. 这种贝叶斯信念网络 (BBN) 模型支持可持续农业和洪水管理的NT.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 传统的农业做法加剧了粮食安全的挑战,增加了洪水风险.
- 可持续的农业方法对于减轻环境影响至关重要.
- 土壤有机碳 (OC) 含量显著影响土壤特性和农业成果.
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用贝叶斯信念网络 (BBN) 模型来评估耕作适应策略.
- 评估无耕作 (NT) 与传统耕作 (CT) 对冬季小麦生产,洪水管理和温室气体排放的影响.
- 探索土壤有机碳 (OC) 含量在优化耕作实践中的作用.
主要方法:
- 利用贝叶斯信念网络 (BBN) 整合土壤特性 (质地,水特性,OC含量) 和耕作实践.
- 使用农业技术转让决策支持系统 (DSSAT) 来模拟48个作物季节的BBN参数化.
- 在NT和CT情景下比较小麦产量,地表排水和温室气体-CO2排放的概率估计.
主要成果:
- 无耕作 (NT) 与传统耕作 (CT) 相比,表现优越,显示温室气体-CO2排放量减少 (7.31%与7.36%) 和累计排放量减少 (8.50%与8.55%),在最高参数类别中产量增加 (7.56%与7.35%).
- NT显著有利于土壤碳库存,最高记录为286,634公斤/公 (NT.OC-7%PDPG8),相比之下,CT的最低记录为5,894公斤/公 (CT.OC-3.9%PDPG8).
- 与CT (7,415 kgCO2eqv/ha) 相比,NT平均导致温室气体-CO2排放 (9,985 kgCO2eqv/ha) 和地表排放 (7,415 kgCO2eqv/ha) 较低,这有助于缓解自然洪水.
结论:
- BBN模型有效地捕捉不确定性,并为农业管理中的知情决策提供概率见解.
- 建议在冬季小麦生产中使用无耕种 (NT),因为它有助于减少排放,排放和增强土壤碳捕获.
- 这些发现支持可持续发展目标 (SDG) 12和13,促进负责任的生产和农业的气候行动.
相关概念视频
What is Climate?
18.4K
Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
18.4K
Adaptations that Reduce Water Loss
25.2K
Though evaporation from plant leaves drives transpiration, it also results in loss of water. Because water is critical for photosynthetic reactions and other cellular processes, evolutionary pressures on plants in different environments have driven the acquisition of adaptations that reduce water loss.
25.2K
Responses to Drought and Flooding
10.6K
Water plays a significant role in the life cycle of plants. However, insufficient or excess of water can be detrimental and pose a serious threat to plants.
10.6K
Light Acquisition
8.4K
In order to produce glucose, plants need to capture sufficient light energy. Many modern plants have evolved leaves specialized for light acquisition. Leaves can be only millimeters in width or tens of meters wide, depending on the environment. Due to competition for sunlight, evolution has driven the evolution of increasingly larger leaves and taller plants, to avoid shading by their neighbors with contaminant elaboration of root architecture and mechanisms to transport water and nutrients.
8.4K
The Calvin Benson Cycle
4.5K
Ribulose 1,5- bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase (RuBisCo) is a critical enzyme that catalyzes carbon dioxide assimilation during photosynthesis. However, it is an inefficient enzyme, having an extremely slow catalytic rate. A typical enzyme can process about a thousand molecules per second; however, RuBisCo fixes only around three-carbon dioxides per second. Photosynthetic cells compensate for this slow rate by synthesizing very high amounts of RuBisCo, making it the most abundant single...
4.5K
Design Example: Analyzing Capacity Contours for Flood Risk Assessment
41
Flood risk assessment involves careful planning and analysis to ensure the safety of communities near water retention structures. Capacity contours are a vital tool in this process, as they illustrate the potential spread of water at specific levels in a given area. In the context of building a bund across a small valley, these contours play a critical role in evaluating the safety of nearby residential areas.In this example, the bund is intended to store stormwater in the valley. The engineers...
41


