中国的康复需求:基于全球疾病负担研究1990-2019年的估计
Tian Tian1, Lin Zhu1, Qingzhen Fu1
1Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Harbin Medical University, Harbin, Heilongjiang 150081, China.
Chinese medical journal
|September 11, 2024
概括
中国的康复需求急剧增加,2019年有超过4.6亿人需要服务. 预测显示,到2034年,将近6.36亿人将需要康复,突出显示迫切需要扩大服务.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 康复医学 康复医学 康复医学
- 老年学是指老年学的学科.
背景情况:
- 康复对于改善人口健康和生活质量至关重要.
- 中国人口老龄化需要大幅扩大康复服务.
- 目前中国的康复需求还不清楚,需要进一步调查.
研究的目的:
- 探索中国当前的康复需求.
- 预测从2020年到2034年的康复需求的未来趋势.
主要方法:
- 使用的全球疾病负担 (GBD) 研究数据用于健康状况.
- 为年龄标准化的利率趋势计算了估计的年度百分比变化 (EAPC).
- 在2034年之前的预测中使用贝叶斯年龄周期队列分析 (BAPC).
主要成果:
- 2019年,大约有4.6亿人 (占总人口的33.3%) 需要康复治疗,贡献了6300万年残疾人 (YLDs).
- 从1990年到2019年,康复需求增加了71.3%.
- 肌肉骨疾病是主要原因,其次是听力损失;到2034年,预计瘤,心血管和神经系统疾病的显著增加.
结论:
- 在过去的30年里,中国的康复需求大幅增加.
- 到2034年,预计中国五分之二以上的人将需要康复服务.
- 开发全面的康复服务以满足不断升级的个人需求是必不可少的.
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