在气候变化场景下,使用MaxEnt模型预测叶滚筒 (Cnaphalocrocis medinalis) 在中国的可能分布
Yuncheng Zhao1, Lei Zhang1, Chunzhi Wang2
1National Meteorological Center, 46 Zhongguancun South St., Beijing, 100081, China.
Scientific reports
|September 11, 2024
概括
气候变化正在扩大大米叶滚子 (Cnaphalocrocis medinalis) 的风险区域,这是一个主要的水害虫. 未来的预测显示,害虫分布向北转移,需要适应性农业战略.
科学领域:
- 农业昆虫学 农业昆虫学
- 气候变化 生态学 生态学
- 虫害管理 虫害管理 虫害管理
背景情况:
- 米叶 (Cnaphalocrocis medinalis) 的分布和爆发模式受到气象因素的重大影响.
- 了解这些关系对于在不断变化的气候条件下预测害虫动态至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 通过气候变化情景评估中国Cnaphalocrocis medinalis的当前和未来风险分布.
- 预测2040年到2100年害虫分布的潜在变化.
主要方法:
- 利用了C. medinalis的244个发生数据点和8个生物气候变量.
- 采用了MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS,整合了共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 气候场景数据.
- 进行中心点分析以确定害虫分布中心的转移.
主要成果:
- 预计C. medinalis风险地区的总体增加,特别是在SSP245情景下.
- 观察到低风险地区的减少和中高风险地区的显著增加.
- 确定了风险地区向北转移,有可能扩展到宁中部等地区,以及分布中心向西北转移.
结论:
- 气候变化正在推动中国大米叶滚筒风险地区向北和向西扩张.
- 适应性策略,包括加强监测,综合害虫管理和开发抗害虫作物,对于未来的农业规划至关重要.
- 需要进行政策调整,以应对由于气候变化而不断变化的害虫风险概况.
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