使用CA-ANN模型预测Prayagraj的城市化轨迹:人口压力和土地使用动态
Md Omar Sarif1, Rajan Dev Gupta2, Ayyoob Sharifi3
1Department of Geography, Lovely Professional University, Phagwara, 144411, India; Department of Research Impacts and Outcome, Division of Research and Development, Lovely Professional University, Phagwara, 144411, India.
Journal of environmental management
|September 12, 2024
概括
由于城市化,普拉雅格拉吉的土地使用正在迅速变化,建筑区以农业和森林土地为代价扩大. 未来的预测表明持续增长,需要战略城市规划以实现可持续性.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 城市规划 城市规划
- 遥感 遥感 遥感 遥感
背景情况:
- 土地使用/土地覆盖 (LULC) 动态对于资源管理和保护战略至关重要.
- 了解LULC变化对于应对城市增长压力和平衡竞争中的土地用途至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 从1988年到2028年,评估和预测印度普拉雅格拉吉市的LULC动态.
- 分析人类人口压力,农业和城市化对城市景观的影响.
- 为可持续城市规划和资源管理提供见解.
主要方法:
- 利用长期的时空Landsat数据集 (1988-2018) 进行LULC变化分析.
- 使用细胞自动机 (CA) 和人工神经网络 (ANN) 模型用于未来的LULC预测.
- 嵌入的探索层 (道路,教育机构,坡道,河流等) 用于模型培训和验证.
主要成果:
- 在1988年至2018年期间,建筑用地 (10.03%) 显著增加,农业用地 (-13.43%) 和森林用地 (-3.03%) 显著减少.
- 预计到2028年,建筑用地将进一步增加2.83%,主要影响农业和森林地区.
- 模型验证实现了90.29%的高精度,卡帕值为0.87.
结论:
- 在城市化和人口增长的推动下,Prayagraj的LULC正在经历快速转型.
- 未来的LULC趋势表明,对自然和农业资源的压力持续,需要积极的城市规划.
- 划定未来开发区对于普莱亚格拉吉的环境可持续性和经济繁荣至关重要.
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