相关实验视频
Updated: Jun 13, 2025

29:13
Microbial Communities in Nature and Laboratory - Interview
Published on: May 28, 2007
6.2K
为多重危机做好了准备吗? 复杂性科学和系统思维的需要,以解决全球和国家证据差距
Aku Kwamie1, Sara Causevic2, Goran Tomson3
1Alliance for Health Policy and Systems Research, World Health Organization, Geneva, GE, Switzerland kwamiea@who.int.
BMJ global health
|September 12, 2024
概括
世界面临复杂的全球性威胁,阻碍了可持续发展目标的进展. 应用系统思维提供了更好的研究方法,以了解和解决这些相互关联的挑战,以改善全球和国家政策.
科学领域:
- 全球健康 全球健康
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 公共政策 公共政策
背景情况:
- 由于气候变化,冲突和COVID-19大流行等全球威胁的融合,可持续发展目标 (SDGs) 显著偏离了轨道.
- 当前的数据和研究证据往往无法捕捉到这些多方面的威胁之间的复杂相互作用,这种情况由"多危机"时代加剧.
- 现有的全球文献主要是相关和描述性的,地理上有限,缺乏受多危机事件影响最大的国家的代表性,导致政策指导不足.
研究的目的:
- 突出数据和研究证据的关键需求,这些数据和研究证据可以解释系统风险的背景下全球威胁的复杂相互依存关系.
- 倡导采用应用系统思维,为全球和国家政策制定提供更强大,更具代表性的证据.
- 解决当前研究方法的局限性,以捕捉相互关联的全球挑战的复杂性.
主要方法:
- 提出系统思维的应用,这种框架利用各种研究方法来产生关于复杂系统属性的证据.
- 强调参与过程来定义系统边界和行为,增强利益相关者的参与.
- 借鉴了已建立的假设,建模,可视化和测试随时间推移复杂系统动态的方法.
主要成果:
- 当前的研究往往忽视了全球威胁的相互依赖性,导致理解分散,政策干预无效.
- 应用系统思维提供了一条途径,通过解决复杂性和相互联系来产生更全面的证据.
- 提出的方法可以改善全球和国家政策层面的证据生成.
结论:
- 应用系统思维提供了一种至关重要的方法,可以产生复杂的证据,以应对当前的多重危机,并推动可持续发展目标.
- 迫切需要将系统思维纳入研究和政策流程,以更好地理解和管理相互关联的全球风险.
- 面对复杂的,相互影响的威胁,更具代表性和方法上多样化的研究对于有效的全球和国家指导至关重要.
相关概念视频
Strategies for Assessing and Addressing Confounding
86
Confounding is a critical issue in epidemiological studies, often leading to misleading conclusions about associations between exposures and outcomes. It occurs when the relationship between the exposure and the outcome is mixed with the effects of other factors that influence the outcome. Given that, addressing confounding is of high importance for drawing accurate inferences in research.
Confounding can be addressed at both the design phase of a study and through analytical methods after data...
Confounding can be addressed at both the design phase of a study and through analytical methods after data...
86
Confounding in Epidemiological Studies
151
Confounding in statistical epidemiology represents a pivotal challenge, referring to the distortion in the perceived relationship between an exposure and an outcome due to the presence of a third variable, known as a confounder. This variable is associated with both the exposure and the outcome but is not a direct link in their causal chain. Its presence can lead to erroneous interpretations of the exposure's effect, either exaggerating or underestimating the true association. This...
151
Causality in Epidemiology
347
Causality or causation is a fundamental concept in epidemiology, vital for understanding the relationships between various factors and health outcomes. Despite its importance, there's no single, universally accepted definition of causality within the discipline. Drawing from a systematic review, causality in epidemiology encompasses several definitions, including production, necessary and sufficient, sufficient-component, counterfactual, and probabilistic models. Each has its strengths and...
347
Mechanistic Models: Compartment Models in Individual and Population Analysis
33
Mechanistic models are utilized in individual analysis using single-source data, but imperfections arise due to data collection errors, preventing perfect prediction of observed data. The mathematical equation involves known values (Xi), observed concentrations (Ci), measurement errors (εi), model parameters (ϕj), and the related function (ƒi) for i number of values. Different least-squares metrics quantify differences between predicted and observed values. The ordinary least...
33
Steps in Outbreak Investigation
114
In the ever-evolving field of public health, statistical analysis serves as a cornerstone for understanding and managing disease outbreaks. By leveraging various statistical tools, health professionals can predict potential outbreaks, analyze ongoing situations, and devise effective responses to mitigate impact. For that to happen, there are a few possible stages of the analysis:
114
Psychology as a Science
682
Psychology, as a scientific discipline, aims to understand the mind and behavior through rigorous and systematic methods. The foundation of psychological research is evidence-based, relying heavily on the scientific method to derive and validate knowledge. This structured approach ensures that findings are reliable, valid, and applicable to broader contexts.
The scientific method in psychology involves six critical steps: making observations, formulating hypotheses, conducting tests, analyzing...
The scientific method in psychology involves six critical steps: making observations, formulating hypotheses, conducting tests, analyzing...
682

