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在全球气候变化下,生物气候变量背后的降雨和温度时间在气候变化下重新排列

Ákos Bede-Fazekas^1,2, Imelda Somodi¹

¹HUN-REN Centre for Ecological Research, Institute of Ecology and Botany, Vácrátót, Hungary.

Global change biology

|September 13, 2024

概括

气候变化显著改变了特定气候时期 (SCP) 的时间,影响了物种分布模型. 考虑到这些变化对于在不断变化的世界中准确的生态预测至关重要.

科学领域:

生态生态学生态生态学
气候科学气候科学
生物地理学是生物地理学.

背景情况:

种类分布模型通常使用生物气候变量.
这些变量的生态解释往往取决于特定气候时期 (SCP) 的时间,例如最潮湿的季度.
由于气候变化导致的SCPs时间的潜在变化在生态建模中经常被忽视.

研究的目的:

在气候变化下调查特定气候周期 (SCP) 在一年内位置的全球变化.
为了确定这些SCP转移的空间热点.
评估时间段,气候场景和全球气候模型 (GCM) 对SCP变化的规模和频率的影响.

主要方法:

与参考期相比,SCPs未来一年内位置的计算偏差.
使用了四个未来的时间段,四个气候场景和四个CMIP6 GCM进行整体分析.
采用线性模型来评估建模选择 (时间段,场景,GCM) 对SCP转移特征的影响.

主要成果:

观察到显著的SCP转移,其中一些超过两个月甚至达到六个月.
预计热带地区将经历温度和降水相关的SCP变化.
对于温带和北极地区,也预测了与降雨相关的变化,在赤道的联合变化可能会导致无类比气候.
随着较晚的时间段和更严重的场景,SCP变化加剧;GCM的影响不那么明显.
时间段的选择对SCP转移的影响比场景的选择更大,GCM选择的影响最小.

结论:

特定气候周期 (SCP) 的时间表容易受到气候变化的影响,全球预计将发生重大变化.
当前的物种分布模型可能会产生不准确的预测,如果它们不考虑这些SCP转移.
将SCP转移现象纳入未来的预测分布模型对于提高生态预测准确性至关重要.

关键词:

生物气候变量生物气候变量气候变化气候变化气候变化气候模式气候模式气候模式影响评估的影响评估.没有类似的气候.现象学 (phenology) 是一种现象学.一个季度,一个季度,一个季度.特定气候时期的特定气候时期.年内分配分配.

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