基于洪水过程的向量方向的长短期记忆研究,用于洪水预测
Tianning Xie1, Caihong Hu2, Chengshuai Liu3
1School of Water Conservancy and Transportation, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, 450001, China.
Scientific reports
|September 13, 2024
概括
本研究介绍了一种矢量方向长短记忆 (VD-LSTM) 模型,用于改进洪水预测. 与传统的LSTM模型相比,VD-LSTM模型提高了预测洪水事件的准确性.
科学领域:
- 水文与水资源工程 水文与水资源工程
- 环境科学中的人工智能
背景情况:
- 准确的洪水预测对于预防灾害,公共安全和水资源管理至关重要.
- 现有的水文模型往往难以准确地模拟洪水排水的动态特征,特别是峰值流量和时间.
研究的目的:
- 开发和评估一种新的混合模型,矢量方向长短内存 (VD-LSTM),用于增强洪水过程模拟.
- 将VD-LSTM模型的性能与洪水预测中的标准长短期记忆 (LSTM) 模型进行比较.
主要方法:
- 开发VD-LSTM模型,将洪水过程的向量方向与LSTM神经网络集成在一起.
- 培训和验证使用金格尔和卢希盆地 (分别为50个和49个样本,分为7:3) 的测量雨水流水数据.
- 基于纳什-萨特克利夫效率 (NSE),根平均平方误差 (RMSE) 和偏差指标的性能评估.
主要成果:
- VD-LSTM模型表现出优于标准LSTM模型的性能,显示NSE的改进以及RMSE和偏差的减少.
- VD-LSTM实现了观察到的流水表的更好的模拟,有效地解决了峰值流量低估和时间延迟的问题.
- 与LSTM模型相比,VD-LSTM模型在训练过程中表现出更快的融合和更好的适应.
结论:
- 拟议的VD-LSTM模型有效地捕捉了洪水排水过程中复杂的上升和退水动态.
- 与LSTM的合矢量化减少了训练梯度错误,从而导致更准确,更有效的洪水过程模拟.
- VD-LSTM模型为水文预测和水资源管理应用提供了重大进步.
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