在中国西部报告的结核病发病率的空间和时间分析和预测
Daren Zhao1, Huiwu Zhang2,3, Xuelian Wu4
1Department of Medical Administration, Sichuan Provincial Orthopedics Hospital, Chengdu, Sichuan, P.R. China. cdzhaodaren@163.com.
BMC public health
|September 13, 2024
概括
中国西部的结核病发病率在空间上聚集在一起,西藏是热点. 这种疾病表现出明显的季节性模式,有助于开发公共卫生战略的预测模型.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 空间分析 空间分析
背景情况:
- 结核病 (TB) 在中国西部构成了重大公共卫生挑战.
- 了解结核病的空间和时间动态对于有效控制至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析了12个中国西部省份报告的结核病发病率的空间和时间分布.
- 为结核病发病率开发最佳预测模型.
- 为结核病预防,控制和卫生政策优化提供信息.
主要方法:
- 收集了12个省/市的每月结核病发病率数据.
- 利用ArcGIS进行空间和时间分析.
- 应用季节性指数,SARIMA和霍尔特-温特斯模型进行预测.
主要成果:
- 结核病发病率表现出显著的空间聚类 (莫兰I > 0,p < 0.05).
- 西藏被确定为结核病发病热点.
- 观察到明显的季节性结核病发病率模式,在第一季度和第二季度达到峰值.
- 开发的预测模型通过了白噪声测试.
结论:
- 由于西藏的热点地位,需要加强结核病干预策略和政策支持.
- 对结核病发病率的最佳预测模型在不同地区有所不同.
- 结果为中国西部的结核病控制和卫生政策提供了参考.
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