使用基于人口的分层分数预测老年人安置在养老院的风险
Giovanni Corrao1, Matteo Franchi2, Gloria Porcu2
1National Centre for Healthcare Research and Pharmacoepidemiology, University of Milano-Bicocca, Milan, Italy; Welfare Department, Lombardy Region, Milan, Italy.
Public health
|September 14, 2024
概括
一个新的得分预测了老年人的养老院安置情况. 这个工具可以识别有风险的老年人,使家庭护理服务成为可能,并可能防止老人院入院.
科学领域:
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 医疗保健服务研究 医疗服务研究
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 预测养老院安置对于老年人护理计划至关重要.
- 现有的预测模型可能无法完全捕捉影响投资决策的因素的复杂性.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一种新的评分,用于预测老年人群的养老院安置情况.
- 确定与养老院入院相关的关键临床和社会因素.
主要方法:
- 一项基于人口的病例控制研究,利用意大利北部的医疗保健使用数据库.
- 条件后勤回归被用于从临床条件和医疗保健服务中识别预测因素.
- 开发的得分在一个单独的数据集上得到了验证.
主要成果:
- 在老年人养老院安置 (ENHP) 评分中整合了21个因素.
- 心理健康障碍和慢性神经疾病是显著的预测因素.
- 该ENHP得分显示出良好的预测性能,AUC为0.77和强度校准.
结论:
- 从公共卫生数据中获得的简单得分可以可靠地预测老年人入住养老院的风险.
- ENHP评分可以帮助医疗保健决策者识别高风险个体.
- 早期识别有助于提供有针对性的家庭服务,从而避免在养老院安置.
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