对使用贝叶斯网络进行危险货物运输的海港基础设施风险评估
Rafi Ullah Khan1, Jingbo Yin1, Elshan Ahani1
1State Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering, Department of Transportation Engineering, School of Ocean and Civil Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China.
Marine pollution bulletin
|September 14, 2024
概括
危险货物运输对海港基础设施构成重大风险,其中火灾,爆炸,腐蚀和不当处理是关键因素. 实施高级培训,监控系统和自动化可以减轻这些风险并确保持续运营.
科学领域:
- 海上安全的航行.
- 风险管理 风险管理
- 基础设施弹性 基础设施弹性
背景情况:
- 从危险货物事故中恢复海港基础设施是资源密集和耗时的.
- 危险货物运输对海港基础设施的风险尚未得到充分了解.
- 这项研究解决了有关海港危险货物风险的知识差距.
研究的目的:
- 综合审查由危险货物运营产生的海港基础设施风险.
- 识别关键的风险因素及其相互依存关系.
- 提出实际的风险减轻策略.
主要方法:
- 文献审查,事件报告分析和专家咨询.
- 使用专家判断和后勤回归开发条件概率表 (CPT).
- 通过贝叶斯网络 (BN) 进行的风险分析与灵敏度分析.
主要成果:
- 在典型条件下,火灾和爆炸 (8.73%),腐蚀 (5.88%) 和不当处理 (5.61%) 是主要的风险因素.
- 不当处理和腐蚀显著增加了风险,分别为153%和96%.
- 敏感性分析确定了影响海港基础设施的关键风险因素.
结论:
- 积极的风险管理对于海港基础设施的弹性至关重要.
- 追踪系统,AR/VR培训和自动化等技术解决方案可以减少人为错误并提高安全性.
- 实施建议措施可以确保海港不间断运营,并最大限度地减少事故影响.
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