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分析气候变化对法国东南部果园提供的生态系统服务的影响,使用基于过程的模型
Gilles Vercambre1, José M Mirás-Avalos2, Perrine Juillion3
1INRAE, UR PSH, 84000, Avignon, France.
Journal of environmental management
|September 14, 2024
概括
气候变化将影响果园,产量增加到2050年,然后下降. 水果质量和碳捕集量将下降,而氧化排放量将上升,这凸显了适应性战略的必要性.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 水果生产面临着气候变化的挑战,威胁着农业生态系统的可持续性.
- 关于气候变化对果园可持续性指标的长期影响的数据有限.
研究的目的:
- 分析气候变化对果园生态系统服务的影响,使用QualiTree模型.
- 在各种气候和灌场景下评估长期可持续性指标.
主要方法:
- 使用了QualiTree果树模型,并增强了开花,和土壤模块.
- 模拟生态系统服务,包括碳捕获,酸盐浸和氧化排放.
- 与法国果园的观测数据对比,验证了模型预测.
主要成果:
- 可销售的果产量预计将增加到2050年,然后下降;水果质量 (折射指数) 显著下降.
- 预计由于土壤土矿化增加,碳捕集量将减少.
- 由于更高的脱率,氧化物排放量预计将增加;土壤水动力学更多地取决于灌而不是气候变化.
结论:
- 通过改进QualiTree模型,可以更好地预测气候变化下的生态系统服务.
- 适应性策略,特别是灌管理,对于保持果园可持续性至关重要.
- 了解气候对水果生产和生态系统服务的影响对于未来的农业生态系统弹性至关重要.
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