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气候专家对二氧化碳排放减少和未来变暖的看法
Seth Wynes1,2, Steven J Davis3, Mitchell Dickau1
1Department of Geography, Planning & Environment, Concordia University, Montréal, QC Canada.
概括
大多数政府间气候变化专门委员会 (IPCC) 作者怀疑变暖将保持在2°C以下,但对本世纪实现净零二氧化碳排放充满乐观. 同龄人的信念与个人观点有很强的相关性,这表明人们可能高估了共识.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境政策 环境政策
- 社会科学 社会科学 社会科学
背景情况:
- 政府间气候变化专门委员会 (IPCC) 在气候预测中使用了排放场景,但没有赋予概率.
- 了解IPCC作者对气候结果的看法至关重要,因为他们的专业知识和影响力.
研究的目的:
- 调查IPCC作者关于他们对关键气候结果的概率评估.
- 调查作者个人信仰与他们对同伴信仰的看法之间的相关性.
主要方法:
- 在211名IPCC作者中进行了一项调查.
- 作者被问及特定气候结果的概率.
- 还评估了作者对同龄人的信仰的看法.
主要成果:
- 大多数作者对将全球变暖限制在"巴黎协定"目标 (远低于2°C) 持怀疑态度.
- 大多数作者对在21世纪下半叶实现净零二氧化碳排放持乐观态度.
- 在个人信仰和被认为是同龄人的信仰之间发现了强烈的相关性.
结论:
- 国际气候变化专门委员会 (IPCC) 作者普遍认为,巴黎协议的温度目标不太可能实现.
- 作者们对实现净零二氧化碳排放充满乐观.
- 关于气候结果的信念可能会受到极端观点的个体倾向于将其视为更接近群体平均值的倾向的影响.
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