可再生和非可再生能源消费对巴基斯坦总产量的影响:来自RALS联合整合测试的强有力的证据
Waqar Khalid1, Mehdi Seraj2, Kiran Khalid3
1U.S.-Pakistan Center for Advanced Studies in Energy (USPCAS-E), National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Sector H-12, Islamabad, 44000, Pakistan. waqar.khalid@uspcase.nust.edu.pk.
Environmental science and pollution research international
|September 16, 2024
概括
巴基斯坦 巴基斯坦 巴基斯坦.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 能源经济学 能源经济学
- 环境经济学环境经济学
背景情况:
- 巴基斯坦的能源消耗在过去30年里大幅增加.
- 热能发电的依赖导致了财务和环境问题.
- 能源政策影响经济增长和全球价格脆弱性.
研究的目的:
- 调查能源和非能源因素对巴基斯坦总产量的影响.
- 使用时间序列数据 (1980-2021) 分析长期关系.
- 为可持续能源和经济增长提供政策建议.
主要方法:
- 使用剩余增强最小方位 (RALS) 协同整合测试.
- 使用自回归分布式滞后 (ARDL) 方法.
- 分析了从1980年到2021年的年度时间序列数据.
主要成果:
- 非能源 (劳动力,资本) 和能源因素对总产出产生积极影响.
- 可再生和非可再生能源显著影响经济增长.
- 石油消费对产出产生了积极但微不足道的影响.
结论:
- 向水电,可再生能源 (太阳能,风能) 和天然气实现能源组合的多样化.
- 过渡到国内天然气可以减少贸易逆差和石油价格冲击.
- 促进私营部门的可再生能源,并实施碳税,以促进增长和减少排放.
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