通过空气污染估计未来气候变化对人类死亡率和作物产量的影响
Lee T Murray1,2, Eric M Leibensperger3, Loretta J Mickley4
1Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY 14627.
概括
未来的气候变化将使空气污染恶化,在全球范围内增加表面臭氧. 微细颗粒物 (PM2.5) 在北极外热带地区有利,但对热带和南半球造成伤害.
科学领域:
- 大气化学 大气化学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境健康 环境健康
背景情况:
- 气候变化通过温度变化,降水和大气运输影响空气质量.
- 对气候敏感的自然前体排放也会影响空气污染水平.
- 空气污染的预测变化对人类死亡率和作物产量有影响.
研究的目的:
- 在本世纪末之前量化气候变化对表面臭氧和细颗粒物 (PM2.5) 的影响.
- 区分气候驱动的变化和对空气质量的人为前体排放变化.
- 评估后续对人类健康和农业的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用一般循环模型和全球3D化学运输模型的单向离线合.
- 在七个CMIP6场景下,存档了当前 (2005-2014) 和世纪末 (2090-2099) 的气象数据.
- 孤立的气候影响与人为前体排放对空气质量的影响.
主要成果:
- 预计全球表面臭氧的增加,在变暖情景下对大多数陆地面积造成惩罚.
- 气候驱动的PM2.5变化在北极外热带带带来好处,但在热带和南半球带来惩罚.
- 由于空气质量变化,预计会对人类死亡率和作物生产产生不同的影响.
结论:
- 预计气候变化将在大多数陆地地区加剧表面臭氧污染.
- 气候驱动的PM2.5变化的区域差异需要有针对性的适应策略.
- 未来的空气质量受到气候变化的影响,对全球健康和粮食安全构成重大风险.
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