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模拟草的分布,丰度和对气候变化的反应,作为土壤微气候的函数
Tyson J Terry1,2, Stuart P Hardegree3, Peter B Adler1
1Department of Wildland Resources and the Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, USA.
Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America
|September 16, 2024
概括
侵袭性草在温暖,潮湿的土壤中壮成长,秋季条件对其传播的影响最大. 气候变化正在扩大美国西部适合这种侵入性草的微气候.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 侵袭性物种管理 侵袭性物种管理
- 气候变化的影响 气候变化的影响
背景情况:
- 异国情调的一年生草会降低本土生态系统,增加火灾风险,特别是在水资源有限的地区.
- 侵入性物种对天气变化的敏感性使得准确的分布和丰度建模变得复杂.
- 目前的遥感模型提供了对物种-天气相互作用的粗略理解,阻碍了气候变化脆弱性评估.
研究的目的:
- 量化土壤微气候对草 (Bromus tectorum L.) 建立和生长的有利性.
- 利用机械发芽和土壤微气候数据开发一个预测草分布和丰度的模型.
- 评估气候变化对美国西部草草分布的影响.
主要方法:
- 从发芽和土壤微气候的机械模型中得出的发芽共变量 (速率和值).
- 在30年的时间里,利用了2662个地点跨越树草原.
- 采用四个生物气候共变量来预测草的分布和丰度.
主要成果:
- 该模型准确地预测了草的分布 (总准确率为72%),与遥感模型可比.
- 模型解释了丰富的模式很糟糕 (R2 = 0.22).
- 气候适宜性取决于秋季和春季土壤湿度和温度的空间和时间变化;秋季条件更有影响.
- 从1989年到2019年,适合草的微气候条件在低至中等海拔地区扩大了1017%.
结论:
- 机械土壤微气候共变量提供了对草分布的准确预测.
- 秋季土壤条件是草存在和丰富的关键驱动因素.
- 气候变化已经促进了草扩散到新的地区,特别是在较低的海拔地区.
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