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Published on: March 31, 2023
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到2050年全球住宅冷却能源使用的不平等
Giacomo Falchetta1,2,3, Enrica De Cian4,5,6, Filippo Pavanello4,5,7
1Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, 30133, Venice, Italy. giacomo.falchetta@cmcc.it.
Nature communications
|September 16, 2024
概括
到2050年,全球空调使用量将大幅增加,电力需求和排放量将翻一番. 然而,获取和获取的利益仍然不平等,使数十亿人无法冷却并加剧气候变化影响.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 能源政策 能源政策
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 全球气温上升和社会人口结构变化增加了暴露于热量的风险.
- 空调 (AC) 是一个有效的热适应,但是能源密集型和不平等的可用性.
- 家庭收入和适应能力显著影响了AC的采用和利用.
研究的目的:
- 预测全球住宅空调 (AC) 采用和能源消耗到本世纪中叶.
- 评估相关的电力需求,温室气体排放和股权影响.
- 为综合气候变化评估提供精细分辨率的空间投影.
主要方法:
- 使用大型多国家庭调查数据集 (n = 673,215) 开发了统计模型.
- 在全球范围内,对交流采用和能源使用的预测以精细的空间分辨率生成.
- 评估了各种情景,以评估一系列可能的结果.
主要成果:
- 到2050年,全球家庭交流电的份额可能从27%增加到41% (33-48%范围).
- 住宅冷却用电量几乎可以翻一番,达到1940 TWh/年 (1590-2377 TWh/年范围).
- 相关的二氧化碳等效排放量预计在590至1365MtCO2e之间,在获取和利用方面存在显著的不平等.
结论:
- 交流扩张带来了巨大的能源和气候挑战,带来了不平等的利益分配.
- 到2050年,数十亿人可能仍然无法获得必要的冷却,这凸显了适应差距.
- 全球网格预测对于理解AC在气候脆弱性,健康和脱碳努力中的作用至关重要.
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