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Sustainable Development

Sustainable Development

As the human population continues to grow and use resources, we must be mindful of our planet’s natural limits. Sustainable development provides a pathway to maintain and improve human life now while also ensuring that future generations will have the resources that they need. The long-term success of sustainability efforts rests on understanding the interplay between human actions and ecological systems.

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Development of New Methods for Quantifying Fish Density Using Underwater Stereo-video Tools

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Published on: November 20, 2017

重新审视渔业可持续性目标

Vincent Cattoni¹, Leah F South^2,3, David J Warne^2,3

¹The University of Queensland School of Mathematics and Physics, Saint Lucia, Australia.

Bulletin of mathematical biology

|September 16, 2024

概括

经典的种群模型建议在40-50%的承载能力下进行收获. 然而,在对284种鱼类应用时,冰球棒模型通常会推更高的种群大小,以实现可持续的捕捞.

关键词:

贝叶斯模型选择选择的贝叶斯模型.渔业管理渔业管理渔业管理渔业参考点渔业参考点渔业参考点收获战略收获策略最大的可持续收益率.最佳的逃出口是最好的.

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科学领域:

生态生态学生态生态学
渔业科学渔业科学
人口动态人口动态

背景情况:

密度依赖的人口动态模型对于全球收获政策至关重要.
像Beverton-Holt和Ricker这样的既定模型通常建议维持种群在最大可持续收获的承载能力的40-50%.
这些模型是大多数渔业可持续性目标和生物质参考点的基础.

研究的目的:

对渔业收获政策的经典模型 (贝弗顿-霍尔特,里克) 与冰球棒模型相比,研究冰球棒模型的建议.
分析模型选择和参数估计如何影响最佳人口规模目标.
评估模型不确定性对渔业管理的影响.

主要方法:

将曲棍球棒,里克尔和贝弗顿-霍尔特模型与RAM库存评估数据库中的284种物种的种群时间序列数据相匹配.
在这三种模型中比较了推的最佳群体大小 (以承载能力为比例).
进行了一项计算实验,模拟每个模型的数据,以评估模型适配性能和不确定性.

主要成果:

曲棍球棒模型通常比贝弗顿-霍尔特和里克尔模型 (在69-81%的数据集中) 建议更高的人口规模.
在77%的数据集中,冰球棒模型建议目标超过承载能力的60%.
模型匹配显示出相当大的不确定性,最合适的模型很少有强有力的支持 (>95%的概率).
贝弗顿-霍尔特模型经常最适合,即使它不是生成模型,也表明了数据的局限性.

结论:

渔业数据可能不足以明确区分密度依赖的增长模式.
对经典模型的广泛依赖可能会导致非最佳的收获策略,特别是对于生长缓慢的物种.
可持续性目标和生物质参考点可能需要根据更广泛的人口动态模型进行重新评估.