美国汽车装配厂在过渡到电动汽车后,劳动力强度更高
Andrew Weng1, Omar Y Ahmed2, Gabriel Ehrlich3
1Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Michigan - Ann Arbor, 1231 Beal Ave, Ann Arbor, MI, US. asweng@umich.edu.
Nature communications
|September 16, 2024
概括
过渡到电池电动汽车 (BEV) 可能不会像预期的那样减少组装工作. 电动汽车组装工厂的劳动强度大幅增加,这表明普遍失业的风险比人们担心的要小.
科学领域:
- 汽车制造业 汽车制造业
- 劳动经济学 劳动经济学
- 可持续的运输可持续的运输
背景情况:
- 汽车行业正在向电池电动汽车 (BEV) 显著转变.
- 之前的估计表明,与内燃机 (ICE) 车辆相比,电动汽车的装配劳动力需求大幅减少.
- 人们担心,由于这一转型,汽车行业可能面临广泛的失业.
研究的目的:
- 调查电池电动汽车 (BEV) 组装对美国汽车工厂劳动强度的实际影响.
- 提供关于在从内燃机 (ICE) 车辆生产过渡到电动汽车生产期间就业趋势的经验数据.
- 重新评估汽车装配的劳动力减少的预计规模.
主要方法:
- 对美国汽车生产和就业数据的公开数据集的分析.
- 将装配厂转向电动汽车和历史ICE车辆装配数据之间的劳动强度指标的比较.
- 在十年内,在一个特定的BEV装配工地,对劳动强度和总就业的纵向研究.
主要成果:
- 在已经过渡到BEV的美国汽车组装工厂,劳动力强度明显增加.
- 在生产升级阶段,BEV组装的劳动强度是ICE车辆的十倍以上.
- 一个研究的组装工地即使经过十年的BEV生产,劳动强度和总就业率仍然是历史ICE车辆水平的三倍.
结论:
- 过渡到BEV组装可能需要超过15年才能达到与ICE车辆组装的劳动强度平衡.
- 汽车组装厂快速,广泛失业的风险似乎比通常预测的要小.
- 建议使用数据驱动和宏观层面调查进行进一步的特定区域分析,以了解劳动力转型的局部影响.
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