针对风险因素的腹腔大动脉动脉瘤查:对腹腔大动脉动脉瘤风险预测的系统审查
Liam Musto1, Aiden Smith2, Coral Pepper3
1Department of Cardiovascular Sciences, University of Leicester, NIHR Leicester Biomedical Research Centre, Glenfield Hospital, Leicester, UK.
The British journal of surgery
|September 17, 2024
概括
四种风险模型可以预测腹腔大动脉瘤 (AAA) 的发展. 然而,没有一个经过外部验证,这限制了它们对基于人口的查策略的适用性.
科学领域:
- 心血管研究研究心血管研究
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 腹腔大动脉瘤 (AAA) 构成严重的健康风险.
- 有效的风险预测对于有针对性的查策略至关重要.
- 目前关于AAA风险预测模型的文献需要进行系统评估.
研究的目的:
- 系统地审查和比较腹腔大动脉动脉瘤 (AAA) 现有的风险预测模型.
- 评估这些模型在基于人口的查中的性能和适用性.
- 识别用于AAA预测的关键风险因素.
主要方法:
- 在多个电子数据库 (MEDLINE,Embase,MedRxiv,Web of Science,Cochrane Library) 中进行全面的文献搜索.
- 纳入标准侧重于从可修改的风险因素的一般人口队列中开发的模型.
- 使用预测模型风险偏差评估工具 (PROBAST) 评估偏差风险.
主要成果:
- 确定了37个预测模型,其中4个独特的模型全部报告.
- 常见的预测因素包括年龄,性别,生物识别,吸烟,高血压,高胆固醇和心脏病史.
- 对基于电子健康记录的查的适用性很差;很少有模型具有可靠的验证或影响评估.
结论:
- 四个可复制的风险模型显示了腹腔大动脉瘤 (AAA) 预测的可接受歧视.
- 目前AAA风险模型的外部验证存在重大差距.
- 需要进一步验证,以提高这些模型在临床实践和查计划中的实用性.
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