在未来的气候情景下,亚北极基底的适合息地正在缩小
Huiru Li1, Junmei Qu2,3, Zhixin Zhang2,4
1Key Laboratory of Mariculture (Ministry of Education), Fisheries College, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China.
Journal of phycology
|September 17, 2024
概括
气候变化威胁着海藻森林. 到2100年,阿拉斯加的Eualaria fistulosa可能会减少9%,在高排放的情况下,范围会转移到俄罗斯和布里斯托尔湾.
科学领域:
- 海洋生态海洋生态学
- 气候变化生物学
- 保护科学 保护科学
背景情况:
- 藻类森林是对气候变化脆弱的重要海洋生态系统.
- 关于海藻对亚北极阿拉斯加地区气候变化的反应的研究有限.
- 欧亚拉里亚 (Eualaria fistulosa) 是阿列乌特群岛的一个关键鱼种.
研究的目的:
- 在不同的气候情景下,模拟Eualaria fistulosa的未来息地适应性.
- 确定影响E. fistulosa分布的关键环境驱动因素.
- 为亚北极海藻森林的保护战略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 使用物种分布模型 (SDM) 预测E. fistulosa的分布.
- 使用现有事件记录验证SDM性能.
- 分析了海面温度和电流速度对分布的影响.
主要成果:
- SDM 证明了高预测准确度.
- 最低海面温度,其年范围和电流速度是关键预测因素.
- 在高排放场景 (SSP5-8.5) 下,预计到2100年,E. fistulosa的息地将减少9.0%.
- 预计范围的收缩包括在阿拉斯加东南部消失,并向北转移到Kamchatka Krai和布里斯托尔湾.
结论:
- 气候变化对亚北极阿拉斯加地区的Eualaria fistulosa分布构成重大威胁.
- 保护工作必须考虑预计的范围转移和息地适应性变化.
- 了解环境驱动因素对于有效的海藻森林管理和保护至关重要.
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