两次世界大战和比利时:失踪的出生和出生性别比率的变化
1Mater Dei Hospital, Malta.
概括
世界大战对比利时产生了重大影响.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 历史流行病学 历史流行病学
- 人口研究 人口研究
背景情况:
- 出生时的性别比 (M/T) 通常接近0.515并且受到包括压力在内的各种因素的影响.
- 历史事件,如世界大战,被怀疑会影响出生率和出生时的性别比.
- 这项研究调查了世界大战对比利时出生率和出生时性别比例的影响.
研究的目的:
- 分析第一次世界大战和第二次世界大战对比利时出生率的影响.
- 为了量化比利时的世界战争所导致的失踪分娩.
- 评估在两次世界大战期间和之后比利时出生时性别比率 (M/T) 的变化.
主要方法:
- 利用了比利时1830-2019年的出生数据和年度人口数据.
- 采用ARIMA模型来估计和预测出生损失.
- 从战争开始后的一年到战争结束后的一年 (第一次世界大战:195-1919,第二次世界大战:1940-1946) 评估了战争的影响.
主要成果:
- 包括27,346,178个活生生的出生 (M/T: 0.5124) 在1830-2019.
- 观察到出生率显著下降,特别是在1950-2019年期间.
- 确定了大量的出生缺陷:超过44万个失踪出生 (3.80%为第一次世界大战,1.91%为第二次世界大战).
- 报告指出,M/T在第一次世界大战的增幅不大,而在第二次世界大战的增幅很大.
结论:
- 战争通过"失踪出生"产生显著的人口影响,通常被伤亡数据所掩盖.
- 这项研究强调了分析战争对出生率和性别比率的影响的重要性.
- 战争期间观察到的M/T的增加可能与诸如增加性交频率等因素有关.
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