2018年至2020年哥伦比亚自杀企图的时空空间分析
Mario Julian Cañon-Ayala1, Yury Estefania Perdomo-Jurado1, Angela Gissette Caro-Delgado1,2
1Politécnico Grancolombiano, Bogotá, Colombia.
Cadernos de saude publica
|September 18, 2024
概括
哥伦比亚自杀企图从2018-2019年增加,然后在2020年初下降. 年轻成年人 (15-19岁) 面临的风险最高,特定地区的自杀企图率较高.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 心理健康研究 心理健康研究
背景情况:
- 自杀是全球主要的健康问题,哥伦比亚的趋势正在上升,特别是在年轻人中.
- COVID-19 流行病和相关的封锁措施对心理健康和自杀模式产生了重大影响.
- 之前的研究强调了哥伦比亚自杀率的年龄和地区差异.
研究的目的:
- 从2018年到2020年,分析哥伦比亚不同年龄组自杀企图的时空趋势.
- 为了确定高风险的年龄人口和地理区域自杀企图.
- 了解COVID-19封锁对自杀企图发生率的影响.
主要方法:
- 对来自哥伦比亚1,121个城市 (2018-2020年) 的85,526份自杀企图记录进行了时空分析.
- 贝叶斯模型使用R-INLA (R-INLA) 来分析数据.
- 分析包括年龄组和时间趋势的固定效应,以及空间/时间随机效应,以确定高风险区域和时期.
主要成果:
- 自杀企图的发生率从2018年到2019年上升,随后在2020年上半年大幅下降.
- 15-19岁的年龄组在每个季度的市政当局中表现出最高的风险.
- 在安第斯地区和诸如普图马约,沃佩斯,阿劳卡,科尔多瓦,亚马逊州和梅塔州确定了高风险的市镇,特别是在10-59岁的年龄段.
结论:
- 哥伦比亚的自杀企图趋势在2020年显著下降,可能与封锁措施有关,尽管这因年龄组而异.
- 特定的地区,特别是哥伦比亚中部,西南部和东南部,需要有针对性的自杀预防策略.
- 定制,特定于年龄和区域的预防性干预措施对于有效应对自杀企图至关重要.
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