时空空间演变以及中国农业用地转让的驱动因素
Haijiang Chen1, Hong-Wai Ho2, Chunli Ji2
1Business School, Shaoxing University, Shaoxing, Zhejiang, China.
PloS one
|September 18, 2024
概括
中国的农田转让率正在上升,区域差异以U形模式发展. 关键的经济和政策因素影响了这些动态,需要政府为农业机械化和收入增长提供有针对性的支持.
科学领域:
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 农村发展研究 农村发展研究
- 时间空间分析 时间空间分析
背景情况:
- 农田转让是中国农业现代化和农村振兴的关键组成部分.
- 了解其时空动态和宏观经济驱动因素对于有效的政策制定至关重要.
- 之前的研究往往缺乏对区域差异和异质驱动因素的全面分析.
研究的目的:
- 系统地分析自2005年以来中国农田转让的时空演变趋势.
- 确定和评估影响省级农田转让的宏观经济驱动因素.
- 为优化农田转让政策提供经验证据.
主要方法:
- 核密度估计可视化转移速率分布.
- 马尔科夫模型用于评估转移水平的稳定性和潜在转变.
- 专家小组进行了定量回归,以探索驱动因素对农田转让的异质影响.
主要成果:
- 农田转让率显示出整体上升趋势,区域差异呈现出U形演变 (缩小然后扩大).
- 省份表现出相对稳定的转移水平,但具有动态过渡的潜力.
- 人均耕地,农民收入,社会保障,城乡收入差距,城市化,政府干预和市场化促进转移;包容性金融抑制了它;机械化和老龄化具有异质影响.
结论:
- 需要有针对性的政策来解决农田转让的区域差异.
- 建议加强农业机械化,农民收入,社会保障,市场化,并优化政府干预.
- 该研究为中国的农田转让政策制定提供了详细的经验支持.
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