相关实验视频
Updated: Jun 12, 2025

06:10
Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions
Published on: March 31, 2023
904
高辐射强迫气候场景的相关性与一千万成员的合奏分析
Marcus C Sarofim1, Christopher J Smith2,3,4, Parker Malek5
1US Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington, DC, 20460, USA. Sarofim.marcus@epa.gov.
Nature communications
|September 18, 2024
概括
这项研究使用概率气候模型来预测未来的辐射强迫. 结果显示,到2100年,强迫的中位数为5.1W/m2,极端场景的概率很低,但强调它们对长期气候评估的重要性.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 气候建模气候模型
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
背景情况:
- 未来的气候预测依赖于排放场景.
- 传统的场景经常使用定性故事情节.
- 概率方法为评估未来的强迫提供了一个定量替代方案.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个辐射强迫轨迹的概率集.
- 评估未来强制值的相关性.
- 量化不同气候未来的可能性.
主要方法:
- 将温室气体排放场景的概率数据库与复杂性降低的气候模型结合起来.
- 采用了气候模型的概率校准.
- 产生了数百万成员的辐射强迫轨迹.
主要成果:
- 预计到2100年辐射强迫的中位数为5.1W/m2 (第5-95百分位数:3.3-7.1W/m2).
- 到2100年超过8.5W/m2的可能性很低 (0.5%).
- 超过8.5W/m2的概率在2150年增加到7%~.
结论:
- 概率预测为未来气候强迫提供了宝贵的见解.
- 高强迫场景 (例如8.5W/m2) 仍然与损伤函数校准和评估低概率/高影响事件有关.
- 极端场景对于理解长期气候影响和22世纪气候特征的持续有用性.
相关概念视频
Global Climate Change
24.3K
Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
24.3K
What is Climate?
18.4K
Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
18.4K
Radiation: Applications
1.1K
The average temperature of Earth is the subject of much current discussion. Earth is in radiative contact with both the Sun and dark space; it receives almost all its energy from the radiation of the Sun and reflects some of it into outer space. Dark space is very cold, about 3 K, so Earth radiates energy into it. For instance, heat transfer occurs from soil and grasses, the rate of which can be so rapid that frost can occur on clear summer evenings, even in warm latitudes.
The average...
The average...
1.1K
Radiation Pressure: Problem Solving
336
The radiation pressure applied by an electromagnetic wave on a perfectly absorbing surface equals the energy density of the wave. The wave's momentum also gets transferred to the surface when an electromagnetic wave is entirely absorbed by it. The rate at which momentum is transmitted to an absorbing surface perpendicular to the propagation direction equals the force on the surface.
The average value of the rate of momentum transfer divided by the absorbing area represents the average force...
The average value of the rate of momentum transfer divided by the absorbing area represents the average force...
336
Design Example: Analyzing Capacity Contours for Flood Risk Assessment
41
Flood risk assessment involves careful planning and analysis to ensure the safety of communities near water retention structures. Capacity contours are a vital tool in this process, as they illustrate the potential spread of water at specific levels in a given area. In the context of building a bund across a small valley, these contours play a critical role in evaluating the safety of nearby residential areas.In this example, the bund is intended to store stormwater in the valley. The engineers...
41
Atomic Radii and Effective Nuclear Charge
51.3K
The elements in groups of the periodic table exhibit similar chemical behavior. This similarity occurs because the members of a group have the same number and distribution of electrons in their valence shells.
51.3K

