经观察限制的预测显示,干旱时间比预期更长
Irina Y Petrova1, Diego G Miralles2, Florent Brient3
1H-CEL, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium. irina.petrova@ugent.be.
Nature
|September 18, 2024
概括
气候模型低估了未来的干旱严重程度. 一种使用新出现的约束 (EC) 的新方法显示,每年的干旱周期较长,表明全球干旱风险比以前预测的更大.
科学领域:
- 气候科学
- 环境建模
- 干旱的预测
背景情况:
- 气候模型预测全球极端干旱情况将恶化.
- 目前的预测缺乏对大小和时间的信心,
研究的目的:
- 减少气候模型干旱预测中的不确定性.
- 改进使用新兴约束 (EC) 的最长年度干旱时期 (LAD) 的预测.
主要方法:
- 使用观测数据限制气候模型预测.
- 使用新提议的新出现的约束 (EC) 来改进LAD预测.
- 分析两代气候模型以确定偏差和反机制.
主要成果:
- 在全球范围内,EC方法将LAD预测的不确定性降低了10-26%.
- 与目前的情景相比,经过欧盟修正的预测显示LAD增加了42-44%.
- 到本世纪末,全球仅陆地LAD的平均值可能会增加10天.
结论:
- 社会和生态系统面临着比预期的更高和更早的干旱风险.
- 新出现的限制为更可靠的干旱预测提供了途径.
- 了解模型偏差对于准确的气候变化影响评估至关重要.
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