气候变化和全球生物多样性的再分配:实证支持预期范围变化的实质性变化
Madeleine A Rubenstein1, Sarah R Weiskopf2, Romain Bertrand3
1U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), National Climate Adaptation Science Center, Reston, USA.
Environmental evidence
|September 18, 2024
概括
由于气候变化,物种的范围正在变化,但并不总是像预测的那样. 虽然许多人迁移到更高的度和海拔,但不到一半的人显示出预期的方向转移,在物种和方法之间存在显著的差异.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化生物学 气候变化生物学
- 生物多样性科学 生物多样性科学
背景情况:
- 预计气候变化将导致物种的地理范围转移,因为它们追踪合适的气候.
- 常见的假设表明,物种将因应变暖而将分布转移到更高的度,海拔和更深的深度.
- 然而,经验证据表明,许多物种并没有像预期的那样改变范围.
研究的目的:
- 评估人类气候变化对物种地理范围的影响.
- 评估观察到的范围变化是否符合共同的科学预期.
- 为了确定物种范围变化的方向和大小.
主要方法:
- 进行了对物种范围转移研究的系统审查.
- 使用两阶段过程 (标题/摘要,然后是全文评论) 选研究.
- 使用后勤回归来分析转移方向和估计的转移大小 (公里/十年),并考虑方法因素.
主要成果:
- 不到一半 (46.60%) 的范围转移观测支持共同的预期 (更高的度,高度或深度).
- 对更高的度 (11.8公里/十年) 和海拔 (9米/十年) 进行了显著的平均转移,但没有观察到海洋深度.
- 方法学因素,分类学群体和转移维度 (度,高度,深度) 显著影响了观察到的转移.
结论:
- 虽然由于气候变化,物种的范围正在发生变化,但经验证据显示存在很大差异,并不完全支持常见假设.
- 平均速率表明移动到更高的度和海拔,但大多数物种不会按照预期的方向移动.
- 了解种类,方法和转移参数之间的变化对于预测物种重新分布和告知保护管理至关重要.
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