城市气象干旱综合指数基于复合模糊物质元素时刻估计权重模型
Xiangyang Zhang1, Zening Wu1, Huiliang Wang1
1School of Water Conservancy and Transportation, Zhengzhou University, Henan 450001, China.
iScience
|September 19, 2024
概括
城市面临城市化和气候变化的隐藏干旱风险. 一个新的复合模糊物质元素气象干旱综合指数 (CFEMCI) 有效监测城市气象干旱.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 城市规划 城市规划
背景情况:
- 城市地区因快速城市化和气候变化而面临越来越多的气象干旱风险.
- 现有的干旱指数可能无法充分捕捉城市气象干旱的复杂性.
- 传统的权重方法往往忽略了指数之间的相关性.
研究的目的:
- 构建一个全面的城市气象干旱评估指数系统.
- 为了开发一个改进的指数,复合模糊物质元素气象干旱综合指数 (CFEMCI).
- 评估CFEMCI在监测城市干旱事件中的有效性.
主要方法:
- 开发一个城市气象干旱评估指数系统.
- 在模糊物质元素框架内应用时刻估计权重模型.
- 2000年至2019年使用CFEMCI对州市气象干旱的分析.
主要成果:
- 在检测气象干旱事件 (POD>0.78,CSI>0.70) 中,CFEMCI表现出高精度.
- 该指数显示了低的错误报警率 (FAR < 0.13) 和失败率 (FR < 0.22).
- 干旱主要发生在春季,夏季显著加剧趋势,影响26%的病例为轻度至中度.
结论:
- 在城市环境中,CFEMCI为监测气象干旱提供了可靠的工具.
- 开发的指数有效地解决了单个指数和传统权重方法的局限性.
- 这些发现支持加强城市干旱灾害预防和减缓战略.
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