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未来亚马逊地区气候变化诱导的碳损失,使用过去的全球变暖趋势对未来亚马逊地区气候变化诱导的碳损失的紧急限制
Irina Melnikova1, Tokuta Yokohata2, Akihiko Ito2,3
1Earth System Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan. melnikova.irina@nies.go.jp.
Nature communications
|September 19, 2024
概括
未来由于气候变化而造成的亚马逊雨林碳损失可能低于此前估计的. 一个新出现的约束将过去的全球变暖趋势与未来的亚马逊条件联系在一起,改进了气候变化预测.
科学领域:
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
- 气候建模气候模型
- 热带生态学热带生态学
背景情况:
- 亚马逊雨林是地球系统的关键组成部分,了解其对气候变化的反应对于准确的气候预测至关重要.
- 在各种气候变化情景下,关于亚马逊未来的碳循环反应存在重大不确定性.
研究的目的:
- 通过结合模型对比项目第6阶段 (CMIP6) 的地球系统模型来证明亚马逊碳循环对气候变化反应的新兴约束 (EC).
- 改进对亚马逊雨林未来气候引起的碳损失的估计.
主要方法:
- 利用CMIP6地球系统模型分析过去的全球变暖趋势与预测未来亚马逊气候状况之间的关系.
- 应用了新兴约束方法来将模拟过去变暖的模型性能与未来亚马逊碳动态的预测联系起来.
- 量化气候引起的碳损失,不包括二氧化碳施肥和土地利用变化的影响.
主要成果:
- 过度估计过去全球变暖趋势的模型预测未来亚马逊地区的气候将变得更热,更干燥,从而导致更大的碳损失.
- 新出现的约束细化了CMIP6估计气候引起的亚马逊碳损失的平均值,在4.4°C的变暖下从-0.27 GtC年−1到-0.16 GtC年−1.1.
- 这种精细化使得碳损失估计的差异减少了34%.
结论:
- 到2100年,亚马逊雨林的气候引起的碳损失可能比一些模型先前预测的要小.
- 过去的全球温度趋势是改善亚马逊地区碳循环预测的有价值的新兴约束因素.
- 这些发现有助于减少气候预测中的不确定性,并了解亚马逊碳循环的未来.
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