遥远的未来水文学将差异性地改变转移连续性的
Per-Erik Mellander1, Golnaz Ezzati1, Conor Murphy2
1Agricultural Catchments Programme, Department of Environment, Soils and Landuse, Teagasc, Johnstown Castle, Ireland.
概括
气候变化将增加 (P) 供应到淡水中,特别是在地下水养的水域. 确定关键的P动员区域是保护水质的有效缓解策略的关键.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水文学的水文学
- 水质管理水质管理
背景情况:
- 气候变化加剧了陆地到水的 (P) 转移,降低了西北欧洲的淡水质量.
- 在不断变化的水文制度下了解P损失动态对于有效的减缓计划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估气候引起的水文变化对六个对比的爱尔兰河流流域的P转移连续性的影响.
- 根据未来的气候场景 (RCP4.5和RCP8.5) 估计总P (TP) 和总反应性P (TRP) 转移过程的变化.
主要方法:
- 使用模拟河流排放的遥远未来气候场景 (RCP4.5,RCP8.5).
- 将观察到的水文系统 (基流,闪) 与P转移过程 (动员,交付指数) 联系起来.
- 与2020年 (2010-2039) 基线相比,对2080年 (2070-2099) 的预测P转移流程进行了比较.
主要成果:
- 据预测,在两个RCP情景下,P调动在所有流域中保持相对稳定.
- 在闪亮的流域中,P交付最高,在RCP8.5下的地下水养流域中预计会有显著的增长 (+22% TRP, +24% TP).
- 在地下水供应系统中,预计P交付的年间变化将增加.
结论:
- 动员区域的水文连接正在增加,这使得它们成为缓解的关键目标.
- 建议重点关注具有有利P动员条件 (土壤/基岩化学,生物学,水文) 的水文连接区域.
- 有效的水质管理需要有针对性的战略来解决关键的P调动区域,而不仅仅是P源大小.
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