预测美国极端温度相关死亡人数
Sameed Ahmed M Khatana1,2,3, Jonathan J Szeto4, Lauren A Eberly1,2,3
1Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia.
JAMA network open
|September 20, 2024
概括
预计到本世纪中叶,美国极端温度死亡人数将大幅增加. 包括黑人和西班牙裔成年人在内的弱势群体面临不成比例的更高风险,这突显了迫切需要进行公共卫生干预的必要性.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 气候变化的影响 气候变化的影响
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 由于气候变化,美国的极端高温事件正在增加.
- 了解极端温度对健康的影响对于政策制定至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估当前 (2008-2019) 和预计的21世纪中叶 (2036-2065) 在连续的美国与极端温度相关的死亡.
- 评估对不同人口群体的影响差异.
主要方法:
- 使用历史温度数据 (1979-2000) 和气候模型预测的横截面研究.
- 普森回归分析以估计极端温度与全因死亡率之间的关联.
- 包括县级人口预测和两个温室气体排放场景 (SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5).
主要成果:
- 极端温度天与目前每年8248例死亡有关,预计到本世纪中叶将上升到19349例 (SSP2-4.5) 和26574例 (SSP5-8.5).
- 非西班牙裔黑人和西班牙裔成年人预计与非西班牙裔白人成年人相比,与极端温度相关的死亡人数将大幅增加.
- 分析包括3000多万死者,详细按种族,种族和性别分类人口统计数据.
结论:
- 预计到21世纪中叶,美国与极端温度相关的死亡率将大幅上升.
- 预计非西班牙裔黑人和西班牙裔人口的死亡率将不成比例地增加.
- 这些发现强调了针对性干预的必要性,以减轻极端温度对健康的不利影响.
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