鱼对气候变化的全球风险评估
Catarina Pereira Santos1, Rui Rosa2, Catarina Frazão-Santos3
1MARE - Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre/ARNET - Aquatic Research Network, Laboratório Marítimo da Guia, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Portugal, Cascais, Portugal; Sphyrna Association, Boa Vista Island, Sal Rei, Cabo Verde.
The Science of the total environment
|September 20, 2024
概括
气候变化对全球所有鱼物种构成重大威胁. 这项研究引入了评估气候风险的框架,突出了这些重要的海洋捕食者的潜在生物多样性丧失和生态破坏.
科学领域:
- 海洋生物学 海洋生物学
- 气候变化 生态学 生态学
- 保护科学 保护科学
背景情况:
- 这个星球面临着生物多样性和气候危机的同时.
- 海洋鱼在生态和社会经济上至关重要,但面临着保护威胁.
- 现有的评估往往缺乏物种级别的气候风险评估.
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用一个物种级的框架来评估气候相关的海洋生物风险.
- 评估现存的海洋鱼物种全球气候风险.
- 将生态系统的依赖性和人类的脆弱性纳入气候风险评估.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个基于IPCC生态系统水平评估的框架.
- 将框架应用于全球的海洋鱼物种.
- 综合专家评估的风险维度,生态系统依赖性和人类压力的数据.
- 在各种共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 和时间框架下建模威胁水平.
- 分析了物种属性和地区的威胁,脆弱性和风险得分.
主要成果:
- 预计所有鱼物种都将受到气候变化的影响,无论排放情况如何.
- 短期影响很普遍,随着时间的推移,排放场景之间存在显著差异.
- 气候变化的影响因物种谱系和功能属性而异.
- 预计将产生明显的生态影响,并可能导致功能/遗传遗传损失.
结论:
- 气候变化对海洋鱼构成了普遍的威胁.
- 开发的框架为物种层面的气候风险评估提供了一个强大的工具.
- 迫切需要制定保护战略,以减轻气候变化的影响,防止海洋生物多样性和生态系统功能进一步丧失.
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