评估卫生系统资源对马拉维艾滋病毒和结核病计划的影响:一项建模研究
Tara D Mangal1, Sakshi Mohan2, Timothy Colbourn3
1MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
The Lancet. Global health
|September 20, 2024
概括
为了实现马拉维的艾滋病毒/艾滋病和结核病消除目标,需要解决消费品供应链问题. 库存不足危及健康收益,给医疗保健系统带来压力,需要同时加强医疗保健系统.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 卫生系统研究 卫生系统研究
- 数学建模的数学建模
背景情况:
- 马拉维的目标是实现联合国艾滋病规划署和世卫组织消除结核病战略的艾滋病毒/艾滋病和结核病消除目标.
- 该研究评估了实现这些目标对健康和卫生系统的影响,考虑了可消耗限制.
研究的目的:
- 未来评估艾滋病毒/艾滋病和结核病消除目标对马拉维的健康和卫生系统的影响.
- 分析消耗品可用性对计划扩展和健康结果的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用"Thanzi la Onse" (全民健康) 基于个体的多种疾病的模拟模型.
- 从2023年到2033年,为艾滋病毒和结核病计划扩展建模了三种情景 (基线,受约束,不受约束),其中包括可消耗的可用性数据.
- 综合动态疾病传播,卫生系统参与和资源能力 (人员,耗材).
主要成果:
- 预计到2033年,不间断供应将使艾滋病毒和结核病发病率下降,从而避免数百万的残疾调整寿命.
- 与不受限制的情景相比,消费品库存不足导致估计有58,700例额外死亡 (艾滋病和结核病).
- 消除艾滋病毒治疗缺货可以避免12100人死亡,改善结核病预防的准入可以防止另外5600人死亡.
结论:
- 艾滋病毒和结核病计划扩展的预测必须考虑到卫生系统的脆弱性,特别是消费品的可用性,以避免高估健康影响.
- 与计划扩展同时加强卫生系统对于增加人口健康效益和减轻医疗保健系统压力至关重要.
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