社区发烧病例中的呼吸道病原体动态:中国江苏省 (2023-2024年)
Fei Deng1, Zhuhan Dong2, Tian Qiu3
1Department of Acute Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, China.
Virology journal
|September 20, 2024
概括
这项研究确定了南京的关键呼吸道病原体,发现流感A和B病毒是最常见的. 一个ARIMA模型准确地预测了未来的疾病发病率,显示了干预改变后的平原.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 传染病监测 传染病监测 传染病
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 呼吸道传染病是全球主要的健康问题.
- 目前的监测往往忽略了除了流感和冠状病毒之外的广泛的病原体.
- 了解当地的病原体流行和共感染模式对于有效的公共卫生战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在南京建立当地呼吸道病原体谱.
- 分析共感染模式及其与患者人口统计和症状的关系.
- 评估取消非药物干预措施 (NPI) 对病原体传播的影响.
- 开发呼吸道传染病发病率的预测模型.
主要方法:
- 每周从南京市武区的流感类疾病 (ILI) 病例中收集2046个样本 (2023年6月 - 2024年2月).
- 病原体鉴定,包括A型流感,B型流感和人类冠状病毒 (HCoV).
- 分析年龄,性别,症状数量和单一感染和联合感染中的病毒载量.
- 开发和验证一个自回归综合移动平均 (ARIMA) 模型用于发病率预测.
主要成果:
- 总共有53.37%的样本检测出呼吸道病原体呈阳性.
- 流感A病毒 (23.41%) 和流感B病毒 (10.95%) 是主要的病原体.
- 混合感染率为6.11%,与单一感染相比,年龄或症状没有显著差异.
- 一个ARIMA (0,1,4), (0,0,0) 模型显示出强大的预测性能 (R2 = 0.930).
结论:
- 南京的呼吸道病原体环境复杂,不同病毒的年龄分布不同.
- 同时感染与患者的年龄或性别没有显著的相关性.
- 已建立的ARIMA模型准确地预测了未来的疾病发病率,预测未来几个月的高原.
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