第二次人口转型的变种:从年轻女性对生育的态度获得经验证据
Emily A Marshall1, Hana Shepherd2
1Department of Sociology, Franklin and Marshall College, Lancaster, PA, USA.
Population research and policy review
|September 23, 2024
概括
第二次人口转型 (SDT) 理论探讨了个人主义和世俗主义如何影响家庭行为. 这项研究发现,年轻女性中存在不同的态度群体,生育结果各不相同,这表明人口结构发生了复杂的变化.
科学领域:
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 社会心理学 社会心理学
背景情况:
- 第二次人口转型 (SDT) 理论将个人主义和世俗主义与不断变化的家庭和生育模式联系起来.
- 分析态度和行为异质性对于理解人口变化至关重要.
- 之前的潜阶级分析 (LCA) 在年轻女性中确定了不同的态度子组.
研究的目的:
- 检查与SDT理论预测相关的美国中西部县的态度异质性.
- 用SDT理论和其他模型来比较已识别的态度子组.
- 分析态度团体成员身份如何与随后的生育行为有关.
主要方法:
- 利用了关系动态和社会生活研究的数据.
- 雇佣潜伏类分析 (LCA) 根据共同的态度来识别子组.
- 在已识别的子组中比较态度模式和随后的生育率.
主要成果:
- 大多数确定的态度子组部分与SDT预测保持一致.
- 一个子组与最初的SDT理论预测有很强的匹配.
- 其他子组表现出与美国宗教例外主义和命运分歧等替代模型相一致的态度,以及新的异质性.
- 早期成年期的生育模式因群体成员的态度而有显著差异.
结论:
- 态度异质性在塑造人口轨迹方面发挥着重要作用.
- SDT理论解释了一些,但不是所有,观察到的态度模式.
- 在国家样本中识别和跟踪这些态度子组对于了解未来美国人口趋势是有价值的.
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